min3bet and cc with JTo IP

[Wi11i]

warum foldet ihr?


ich hab jetzt viel rumgerechnet in nem englischen forum

you're a
94:6 dog

on the flop to be exact

also zu 6% hat man AA beat auf dem flop.

hier meine rechnerei wo ich aber noch mit beat aces zu 3% aufm flop rechnete
ist eher geschätzt:

"alright i see the point for flopping a draw and him fucking up the betsize so we can keep drawing and stack him.

what are we doing when he leads full pot when we have an OESD? draw anyways?

odds for hitting trips are 1.3%
together with 2 pairs that's already 3%

so let's be generous and say we hit air/one pair and fold flop for 80%...
3% of the time we have a super made hand and let's say of those 3 times we take his stack 2 times (we get outdrawn with 2 pairs 30% of the time, sometimes he'll muck when an ace /king is on the flop when he holds QQ, KK..., sometimes he'll fold with AK, has a redraw with a set or he has just bullshit like TT, JJ himself)

thats a net won amount of about, lets say 180bb

the preflopcall costs us 80 times 4 bb for -320bbs
so i think it's very marginal to think we can end up winning here

sure for 11% we have an OESD and I guess 5% for gutshot + 1 pair (pure guessing)... i'm not sure how to discount for them
but we need another 140bbs to be breakeven there. "